Well it has been a long and turbulent summer and I thought it was finally time that I did a blog. With my impending role as Political Correspondent on Winchester News online drawing ever closer, today's events was the perfect excuse to begin my own form of political satire.
The General Election of 2015 will see the biggest change in the Commons in over a century. The proposed plans to slash the number of MPs by 50 to 600 in 2015 and will see each constituency have nearly the same number of voters. The proposals will see a radical shakeup in constituency boundaries with some seats being merged, some new seats being created and some lost altogether.
The proposed changes have seen some of the leading members of the Coalition Government positions come under threat. These include Chancellor George Osborne for the Conservatives, Business Secretary Vince Cable and Energy Minister Chris Huhne for the Liberal Democrats and Shadow Cabinet members Ed Balls and Tessa Jowell for Labour.
I will come back to the changes to the political landscape in the South later, but I would like to focus on one MP whose constituency boundaries have not changed, Prime Minister David Cameron. It is not surprising that the Prime Minister’s constituency, Witney is not affected by any of the changes proposed. However, it is The Liberal Democrats within the coalition government who are who are the worst affected in these changes. For the 77 MPs whose seats are not affected it is another day at the office, but for the remaining 583 MPs it is time to reapply for their own job.
Now let's take a closer look at how the proposed changes will affect the political landscape in the South. Across Hampshire and the Isle of Wight there will be many changes to political constituencies these will include the formation of the new seat for Hamble and Hedge End, as well as the lost seats of Romsey and Southampton North and Meon Valley to be replaced by the new constituencies of New Forest East and Romsey and Fareham and Horndean. This means that MPs like Caroline Noakes and George Hollingbery may lose their jobs. In the case where two political constituencies will merge into one, MPs who lose their seats will have the chance to contest to be representative of the newly formed constituency in the next General Election.
There are also MPs who will gain and lose political wards in the boundary change. These include the Eastleigh constituency, which is currently held by Chris Huhne. The changes will see Huhne lose nearly half the voters in the Eastleigh seat and will gain around 39,000 from the surrounding Southampton Itchen and Winchester constituencies. This has made Chris Huhne one of the MPs most at risk of losing their seats in the next General Election.
In Hampshire one of the major changes, which has baffled me, is the change to the structure of the two Southampton seats and the newly formed seat of Hamble and Hedge End. In my constituency of Southampton Itchen the proposed changes would see the loss of the Bitterne ward, which includes the Thornhill area Southampton and the inclusion of the Bevois ward.
This is where I feel the proposed changes will have a negative effect because it will see areas of the city being represented by a completely different area outside of the city boundary and with these changes will it mean that the next changes will be the boundaries to local councils and unitary authorities.
What is clear is that the bias, which has affected the political landscape of the United Kingdom for over half a century, has still not been changed. The pledge of the government to have a fairer boundary limit were all MPs constituencies would be represented by roughly the same amount of people has not been changed. The government has said that the changes will say £12 million a year but in reality it is the equivalent of a large-scale restructuring plan and Conservative corporate takeover.
MPs who are most at risk and are now staring defeat in the face will now have to decide whether to contest the proposed changes in the 12 week consultancy period up to the end of December or face having to reapply for a new constituency. However, this could see MPs moving to an area where they can beat their fellow colleague to a “safe seat."
If this is the case then I would advise that all Conservative MPs that Devon and Cornwall may be a nice place to move house from within the foreseeable future and any Labour MP that is looking to secure their job in the next General Election to set their Sat Nav to find the quickest route to Sunderland as soon as possible.
Within the next 12 weeks we will see arguing and moaning of every MP who feels that these changes could see them out of a job and joining the unemployment line. These changes were laid out to ensure there was a less biased political structure within the House of Commons, but it looks as if the real winners are the Conservatives who are likely to take a stranglehold within the House of Commons if the boundary commission's plans to England put in place.
If I was David Cameron then I would not be worried about losing his job at the next general election as it may be the case that the Conservatives will become the sole party in charge at 10 Downing Street. For many MPs today, their future may be summed up in the words of Conservative MP, Andrew Percy who has joked “I’m looking for a job.” If I were Andrew Percy, I would hope I’m not eating those words in a year’s time.
The futures bright, the future is Conservative... Possibly a steal of copyright, but this is what we could be waking up to the morning of the General Election in 2015.
